crazy MIKR action

I got out of MIKR on Tuesday at open. Monday it beat earnings, spiked
up, then fell 30%. Yowzas. That put me down 7% below my initial buy
price. The cool thing was that I had a limit sell order in for 21.98
and the high of the day was 22.37, so I sold 1/4 of my initial stake at
40% gain (after selling 1/2 at 20% gain). So the 7% loss was just on
1/4 of my initial position. I'm liking this partial sell setup.

I also got out of UCTT. It fell below the 50dma and recent support
levels. It might come back, but I wipe my hands of it. This was the
right move. It never did anything but setup lower bases. Not what I
want in a stock. I can pick up something better, like AB.

I'm also selling some of my NSTC. It had a big gap-down this week after
being downgraded, I guess, but has found support at the 14.50 range,
which is also the level it found in early Nov, so I'm holding some.

nice

You've gotta love looking on the IBD front page and seeing 2 of your
stocks make the top 5 most active list. MIKR had another 10% surge and
NSTC finally awoke, bouncing up 6% on huge volume. The nice thing about
NTSC is that it's almost 1/3 of my portfolio.

AOB continues to climb with another 5% upday and up 60% total for me.

And I did add GRRF. I meant to put in a market order for it, but
couldn't decide which I wanted last night, so I figured I'd do it before
open, but then I overslept. Doh. I got it at 17 instead of 16.45, but
it still went up 4% from there on the day. I might add a little more to
it tomorrow.

I'm proud of myself for a couple of things: for holding MIKR through
that downspell when it was negative for me to watch it come back to
being up 24%; for deciding on my own to get out of TCHC and see that
decision confirmed by Josh; and for recognizing that UCTT is getting old
the same day Josh says to take some off the table. I might not be
finding my own setups yet, but I think I'm learning something about when
to sell and when to wait.

Of course, all this talk might just be cockiness from having my acct go
up 4.5% today. The Fed meeting tomorrow could take the wind out of the
sails.

selling TCHC

I held this for more than a month and it never got more than 7-8% up and
has slowly drifted toward the 50day. The last few days look like
distribution, with Friday being a downday on big volume closing below
the 50dma.

I intend to add either GRRF or DLB.

Took more AOB off the table

Sold another 25% of my original stake this morning for 40% profit of
1.6R. Now I guess I'll let the last 25% ride until I see something
fundamentally wrong happen to it.

November recap

At the close of last week, I was down 28.5R, dead even from where I was
in my last recap after Nov Wk1, but up slightly since the beginning of
November, which is kind of a bummer with this strong market we've had.
I was up over 4R at one point, but the last week of the month brought me
back down. All my stocks have been acting well and I have reduced my
trading frequency.

Closed or sold part of 8 stocks in Nov:
CTRN gain 1.2R
MCRS lost 1.2R
WSTG lost 0.5R
MIKR gain 1.9R sold 1/2 pos at 20% gain
HMSY lost 0.8R stopped out at -9%
AOB gain 1.6R sold 1/2 pos at 20% gain
ULTI lost 0.5R failed ot break out, sold at -4%
UCTT broke even, sold 1/2 pos 1st day after failed to break out

I only opened 5 positions in November, compared to 13 in October, and I
am still holding 3 positions from October. Overall, I think things are
good. I am trading less, letting stocks run longer, and 4 of my 6
stocks are in positive territory. Everything I bought was at a proper
buypoint and done at open, and I have not sold anything unless it failed
to breakout or reached a profit target.

maybe I'm learning

I did not sell any MIKR after the big downday it had on 11/21. I had
planned to sell all my remaining shares, but Josh and MktSpec over on IP
made some good points and convinced me I was just trading scared, so I
held it and waited. It never did close below the 50dma and had lots of
support in the form of hanging tails.

Today, it came roaring back: up 16.5% and 200% volume. Hopefully this
means I am actually learning something from the experience around there.
I am happy that I made the right trade (or lack thereof).

Also, I looked back at the chart for ULTI, which I dumped at around the
same time as this MIKR panic hit me, and it went on to close below the
50dma, so I would have closed it out a slightly bigger loss.

AOB is approaching a 40% gain for me. I think I might sell 1/2 my
remaining 1/2 if it hits that mark.

steady now

Not much to report lately. A little fluctuation on the market this
week. Monday was a big down day, but things are recovering. I've
managed to keep from doing anything and my stocks are making new bases.
MIKR and UCTT in particular have found support at their 50dma and I've
still not sold.

But I do think I may be missing some upside. I wonder if I'm holding
these stocks too long waiting for something to happen? One problem that
I identified was that in the past I was over-trading, so I've tried to
hold stuff longer to give it time to go up and not get shaken out too
soon. But the flip side of that is that you want a breakout stock to do
just that: break out. If I buy something and it consolidates for a week
or drifts down a few percent, aren't I missing out on something else?
There's commissions to consider, but that's $10 round trip. I should be
able to recoup that by getting into a better stock.

I don't know. I think at this point in my development, I need to learn
patience and I think that might actually be happening.

a test of will

After MIKR's big down day today, I considered selling my remaining half.
I'm still up 1%, but IBD says to not let your winners turn into losers.
On the other hand, it also says that if a stock climbs 20% in less than
8wks, you should hold it for the full 8 weeks. That would have been a
smart rule to follow with SIM and FTEK.

Also, some folks on IP have convinced me that it is a choppy stock in
general, this is par for the course, that it's still way above the
50dma, and that I'm being scared. All these are probably true.

So I'm going to hold it and be patient and do some sitting. Even though
I'm very tempted to cash out of that and get into LQDT today. That's
one of my problems that I've identified: I like buying new stocks. I
need to decide why I'm doing this. Is it for the thrill of getting
something new, or is it to make money? If it's the latter, I need to
learn some discipline.

bye ULTI

Sold ULTI this morning for a 4% loss. It never really broke down, but
it never broke out, either. It just drifted down toward the 50dma. I
may have sold too soon, as it hasn't closed below it yet and is in fact
bouncing off it this morning, but it wasn't looking like a winner and
was the worst performing of my stocks.

If it does recover and go on to break out, it will be a lesson to not
get out of a stock until your rules force you out.

Besides, I wanted to buy NSTC and I already have too many stocks, so I
had to cut one. I currently hold 6 stocks, which is too many, my goal
is to have no more than 4 at one time. Although 2 of my stocks are 1/2
stakes in winners that I have already cashed out some profits on and am
letting them ride.

I did break one of my rules by buying during the day, but I had planned
to buy NSTC and forgotten to put an order in. Besides that, I got it at
16, when it gapped up to open at 16.24. And 16 is still within 5% of
the 15.25 buypoint.

cutting half my UCTT

... since it did not take off today. It was up early, but closed down
3% for me.

AOB's aight, too

So AOB released really good earnings and the stock was up 10% at open
today. Then it hit my 20% sell at $9.59 on its way to topping at 10.05
for the day. Sweet.

MIKR has had a pullback of 7% since I sold half of it. But volume is
drying up and it seems to be finding support with lots of
upward-pointing arrow days.

picking up some UCTT

Wow, big day on the market today. Indices setting record highs and on
big volume. My izone portfolio was only up a few bucks, but it
recovered from being down quite a bit mid-day.

Tomorrow I'm going to use my remaining cash to buy some UCTT. I've
thought about closing out ULTI as it's been lackluster, but might give
it a few more days.

MIKR doing aight

This morning my order to sell half my MIKR position at 20% up triggered.
Sweet. Now I have to decide what my out is for the other half. It was
an interesting day for MIKR. It went all the way to 19.24 for a new
52wk high, back down past my sell at 18.84 and closed down at 18.13.

Maybe I should have sold my entire stake at 20%, like I did with FTEk,
but now FTEK is up another 12% above what I sold at, so I think I'll
hang on to some. Besides, MIKR hasn't shown a sell signal yet, although
today was a down arrow on slightly larger than avg volume, so I'll be
keeping an eye on it.

out HMSY, in ULTI

Dumping HMSY at open and buying some ULTI. The chart looks pretty good
and it's in group #11.

monthly updates

Since the 1st of November, I've been meaning to do a recap. As of the
end of October, I am down 28.5R. This is not good, especially since I
have doubled my losses since the end of August. But my acct is not at
an all time low, which was down 31R last week.

Sep 2006
Closed 6 positions in Sep.
WEBX, made 0.5R on 10% gain.
FUEL, got my world rocked with a 33% loss for -2R
BTJ spanked me for -11.5R
IMKTA made 0.5R
BTU -0.5R
SIM had a wash

Down 13R on the month. Ouch!

So, that was entirely stupid. FUEL I let go so long because it seemed
to move in a broad range, but it just kept going down and I had such a
small position that I figured what the heck. BTJ I watched slip away.
I didn't chase it down, but I was up for one day and then it had a huge
downday. I kept thinking it would come back as it got lower and lower.
The whole time I was worried and it literally kept me up at night
thinking about my losses and what I should do. Then the oil sector went
in the crapper and I got really scared.

These two stocks alone count for most of my losses since August. My
other 4 stocks made a little. NEVER VIOLATE YOUR STOPS!

Oct 2006
Closed 11 positions in Oct.
WEBX, closed the remaining half of my position at breakeven.
TRAD -0.3R -7%
FTEK +1.0R +20%
VOCS -0.5R -10%
NUVO -0.2R -4%
OPSW -0.2R -4%
CY -0.8R -17% big down day
SYKE -0.2R -3%
MVSN -0.2R -3%
TCHC -0.2R -2% sold half a larger pos on initial down day
WSTG -0.2R -4% sold half a larger pos on initial down day

Down 1.8R on the month. Not great, but not bad considering how many
trades I had. As I said in my other post, I opened too many positions
the 1st and 2nd week of October. Many of them got stopped out after
10/22, which must have been a market down day. I think that of all the
ones I closed, only VOCS has gone on to recover into positive territory
from where I sold it, so this looks like it was a good move to dump all
them.

FTEK I may have closed prematurely, but that's hindsight. It happened
to have a big upday on earnings, but before that had been sinking since
the day I sold it. So, until I get better confirmation of a strong bull
market, I'm shooting for 20% profit. At that point I will either take
half or all off the table, depending on the size of the position.

So far for Nov I have closed 3 positions:
CTRN +1.25R 14%
MCRS -1.23R -6% on a big downday
WSTG -0.50R -10% stopped out of the rest of my pos

So those are down 0.5R, but my currently open positions are up 3.77R, so
this first week is looking good.

out of CTRN again

Well, I had a sell order in for $40 on CTRN, which was 15% gain for me.
Of course, it shot right through that on the way to $45 today, but oh
well. I set that limit during the last sideways trend and twice in the
past week it peaked at 39.94, so I was thinking it was going to fall
back without even hitting 40.

I've done so much that's so wrong with this stock that I don't think I'm
going to trade it anymore. Especially not when the 50 is below the
200dma.

No more buying stocks unless they're from a proper breakout!

ease up

Well, the market started heating up and I started jumping in with way
too many positions. After a while it became apparent that most of them
were lagging, too. Now I'm taking fewer, bigger positions and basing my
trading on this quote by mauitrader:

And remember when a stock breaks out it should immediately start making
you money. Therefore, if you buy a stock and it is not up immediately
the next day, sell half. Then see if the other half can come back.
Nothing says you have to wait till the stock hits that level. The best
stocks keep going up after breaking out. Newbies shouldn't wait. They
should bail quickly if the stock does not work.

Current holdings: FTEK, FSH, CTRN, WEBX, TCHC.

perfect

I got out of BTJ at almost the exact low: $14.15

Well, actually, I kept 60 shares, but I sold the majority.

Always cut losses at 8%!!!!

CTRN out of the box

I know it's wrong that the 50day is below the 200, but I'm back in CTRN
at 35.00. Money is flowing from commodoties into other sectors, and I
think falling gas prices make retail one of those sectors. We'll see.

cramer on commodities

"But what you need to know, though, is that there is no bottom to a
commodities stock when the commodity peaks," he continued. "They will go
down and overcorrect to the point that none of you listening will be
able to take the pain of the decline."

Hrm, that does not bode well. Still, BTJ is holding the 50dma so far.

BTJ line in the sand

Well, this is it. BTJ is right up against the 50dma at 14.79. Low of
the day so far is 14.76. A close below this and I'm gonna have to get
out and admit to a 20% loss on this badboy.

another rule broken

After BTJ closed above 20, I was up 10%, but didn't put a stop in for
breakeven. I also didn't sell part of my holdings, which I thought
about, but greed said, "Hey, why sell now? It might go higher."

out of btu

I sold it Thurs at open as it didn't look like it was holding support.
It went on to lose almost another $1.

Lesson: don't buy if it's not at a proper buypoint

back with SIM

After yesterday's breakout, I have new faith in SIM. I bought some
today at 14, which is what it closed at yesterday. Another buck or two
and this will make the IBD 100 as well. I just have to weather the
pullback.

The bad thing about this is that I've now used most of my (diminished)
cash resources, leaving me helpless to buy other breakout stocks, unless
I dump something. Of course, the way BTU is performing, that won't be
long.

BTJ breakout

After making #3 on the IBD 100, BTJ came roaring out of the gates today
to make a new all time high and break through the resistance at $19.48.
After it did so, I put a limit order in to buy more at $19.55 while it was bouncing
off of $20. I came home to find that it was now at $20.49 and my order
had filled! Sweet.

It closed at $20.35.

out of IMKTA

After the selloff on Friday, I decided to exit this, so I sold at open.
Of course, it's up $0.89 on the day, but I don't feel bad. I did what I
should have done. It's not if it went up or down, but that I made the
right trade at the right time.

2006.09.01 update

Just a note for myself here. My acct balance as of right now is -15R.
Is that bad? Is it good? I dunno, but I can't change it by worrying,
so it just is. I cannot sit obsessing about the money, instead I should
concentrate on making good trades and the results will follow.

I might try and recap my trades from Aug, if I can define which ones
those are (ones starting in Aug, closing in Aug, open, closed, etc)

I had a losing trade on CTRN of 2R. That was big and dumb. Did not buy
at a proper buypoint. I tried to average down, but also got shaken out
before it recovered.

IGT I had a small loss of 0.15R from a proper buypoint.

SWN was a momentum play that turned bad. Lost 1R in 2 days. It was
not at a proper buypoint but a speculative Nat Gas play that didn't
work.

TRMB lost 0.5R off a proper buypoint and watched it go up 5% before
that. Should have maybe upped my stop to breakeven in this tough
market.

SIM lost 0.36R on a speculative play on a volatile stock. Bought right
below the resistance level of a new high and it bounced back down.

GE short lost 0.8R
PZZA short lost 0.5R
LEV short improper buypoint. Lost 0.9R

So I closed out 8 losing trades and no winners with a loss of 6.21R. At
the moment I wave 5 open longs: BTJ, BTU, FUEL, WEBX, IMKTA

bought BTU

I bought some BTU today. It looks like it may have bottomed around 43
and was on it's way back up. As it found resistance at 44, I put in a
limit order for a small buy at 43.80, which filled this afternoon.

I'm not sure this is a good buy or not. I heard about it on a new chat
channel I'm on and the fundamentals look good and the chart looked
indeed like a bottom. FWIW, Cramer likes it, too. So we'll see.

riding the BTJ wave

I started seeing buzz for this stock last week. I bought some at open
on Thursday for $17. Friday I started hearing buzz about how it would
make the IBD100 for the first time since it just climbed to over $15 and
then it would gap up on Monday. At that time I decided to buy more and
it was at 19, so I waited and it dipped to 18.8 right before closing at
19.

It made #14 on the ibd100, but over the weekend it lost $1.60 in AH
trading. I'm still not sure why. I guess all the people that bought it
were looking to take profits. It gapped down to open mid-17s and closed
at 17.02, but I didn't sell because I didn't want to break my rule about
intraday trading.

So now what? My stop was supposed to be 17.29, but I removed it
yesterday so I wouldn't get shaken out. I was going to put in an order
t sell at open so I wouldn't get burned, but some folks at Investor's
Paradise said that the fundamentals were still good and that a pullback
was to be expected. I decided to see what Tuesday would bring.

Today it opened even lower at 16.78 and fell to 16.52 at one point. But
it stayed around 17 for most of the morning. At one point it started
running up and I put a buy order in for more at 17.40 while it was in
the .50s and .60s. It fell back through that and filled and then was in
the 17.20s. Dangit. I wondered if I had some kind of deathwish. Plus
I had broken my averaging down rule. Then, I did the smartest thing I
could do: go take a nap.

I came back later and it was high 17s. Later on it was in the 18s and
finished with a strong close for a day's high of 18.75! My acct was
down 2.5R at open to up 3.4R at close. Phew!

I have definitely not done things right here, and once again being lucky
might lead to bad habits, so I'll have to try and be conscious of those.

My trading rules

I have amended some of these. The old rule is still there in red, the current one is 1a, 1b, etc.

1. Don't buy or sell anything during the day.
1a. Buy using limit orders after watching the opening range of the first 30mins or 1 hr after market open. Only buy if it's an up day for the market, and your stock is above the opening range.
2. Use a "mental stop" based on close prices. A tight physical stop will often
get shaken out during the day. A wider emergency stop might be a good
idea, though.
2a. Now when I buy, I put in a physical stop at 3 * ATR(14) below my buypoint.
3. My R is 1% (0.5% in a downtrend).
4. Don't go long during a downtrend.
5. Once you're up 10%, don't take a loss on that stock.
6. At 20% profit, sell half.
7. Stop shorting stuff until you can make money on longs.
8. NEVER AVERAGE DOWN
9. Only buy at a proper buypoint. Ones I will use are cup & handle, double bottom (with handle), 3 weeks tight, and bounce off the 50dma. All these should be accompanied with at least 50% greater than average volume on the breakout day.
10. Don't buy right before or after an earnings release.
11. If a stock does not break out the first day, sell half of it. You only want stocks that are going to go up immediately.
12. Only buy good-quality IBD stocks. They should be above the 50day, have a 50day above the 200day and trade more than 150k shares daily. And they should have a share price above $10.
13. Remember, there is always another stock.
14. Before you buy a stock, know where you want to get in, where you want to take profits, and where you will bail out.

climax tops will burn ya

My trading buddy bought SIM at 10.35 and watched it go up everyday all
last week. I thought it looked similar to ERS and IFO (now IFON) when
they topped and told him so. He had 20% profit on it last friday and
was wondering what to do. I suggested selling half. He declined.
Monday it went down for the first time in 8 days on what looked like a
lot of churning, and today the sellers swooped in. He got out at 10.79
and ended up with 4% profit instead of 20. It was brutal, 10% drop.

The lesson here is that if something's going straight up, you better be
careful with it. Don't be afraid to get out on the first sign of
weakness.

Also, I think you have to write yourself notes after something like this
happens to you. Or the next time you'll think, "ah, this is nothing.
Look how fast it's gone up 20%. It'll keep going." or "This might just
be a blip and then it will keep going and I don't want to miss it."

goodbye CTRN

Well, I got stopped out of CTRN today. I had left my stop at 29,
deciding that I would not ride that elevator down again. So I lost 7%,
which is not great, since I had too many shares. It ended up being a 2R
loss on one stock. Not cool, but it could have been worse.

phew

I've done something extremely stupid, once again: buying on the way
down. This time it's with CTRN. It was down, and I bought it at 34,
then at 31, and put in an order for 28. For a while, it's been basing
at around 30, and I thought well, my 3rd buy won't fill and it will go
back up and the biggest problem I'll have was that I didn't buy enough
(greed). Store sales #s for the month and quarter would be released
this week and earnings in 2 weeks, so I was still thinking this was a
good time to buy.

Then it slipped and closed in the 29s for a couple of days,
then dipped in the 28s and Tuesday closed in the 27s (with my buy
filling on the way down. Hrm, be careful what you wish for.

Yesterday it closed in the 26s and I realized that there was no longer
anything holding this ride up. But do I get out now? Do I buy more
lower? I still feel this is a good company with good future growth
(they're going from regional to national), but that doesn't matter to
stock prices. What if this thing sinks to below 20 and languishes
there? Do I want my capital tied up in something like that, hoping that
maybe one day it will climb 50% to what I paid for it?

Ugh. Well, I have been somewhat saved. They released sales #s after
close yesterday and they were good. Sales are up, but SSSs were down
from the period last year. Ruh roh. It seems like lately the market
looks for any little thing to get out (and also there's a lot of shorts
in this float).

This morning I put in a sell stop for all my CTRN shares at 26. But it
went up to 27. Then 27.5, then 28, so I moved my stop to 27. Then it
went to high 28s, so I moved my stop up to 28. It closed at 29.59.
Phew! My stop is now at 28.50.

What I should have done was watch it go down and wait for it to rebound,
then start buying some. As it goes higher, buy more. This was totally
backward and I must not congratulate myself or be so happy about it. I
don't want my brain to think of this as a positive experience and be
tempted to do it again. You would think I would have learned my lesson
with NWRE.

NOTE TO SELF: NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER AVERAGE DOWN!

deja vu

Well, I set my stop on SWN close alright--too close. I got stopped out
on a dip early on Aug 1, then the stock tookoff for $3. It's the age
old question of mental vs entered stops. If I want my stop for a
closing price to be 5% to cause me to exit, I should probably just enter
a stop for 10-15% as a safety net.

don't buy during the day

I just got swept up in the natural gas craze and jumped in and bought
SWN at $35.25, which will probably turn out to be the high for the day.
I also thought about doing a smaller volume test buy, then waiting for a
follow up, but though, "nah, it's up 7% on the day, that's enough of a
signal." I better set my stop close on this one.

do the sure things first

I planned to put in an order to buy FUEL at open. 15 mins before open,
I'm reviewing some charts and trying to decide which short play I'm
going to do. As I'm entering my short, I notice it's 8:30, so I put in
my buy limit order for FUEL, but it's already passed my limit. So then
I upped my limit and got it like 1% higher than I would have just doing
a pre-market order. Not a big deal, but it was a stupid mistake.

I think low volume counts

IBD is saying Wednesday didn't count as a distribution day because the
volume was low. Same thing they said earlier in the week. Their count
is 2 distribution days, but I say it's 4.

I have been scooping up CTRN after it's slide this week. Some at 34.85
and some at 31 today. Totally breaking all the rules, and it will
probably burn me, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.

I can't sit still

After we had a followthrough the week before last, I jumped in and
bought a bunch of long positions. This rally has floundered, IMO. I've
been getting shaken out of a few of them, and this morning will close
out a bunch more. 2 things I did wrong:

1. I should have waited for a better rally confirmation.
2. I bought too many stocks at one time.

If I was a true CANSLIM person, I would not be investing at all right
now (and I would still have the profits I made earlier this year). I
realize, however, that I like the excitement of trading. This is not
necessarily a good thing.

I'm back

Took 2 weeks off from vacation, and then not much was happening when I
got back. I finally started trading again last friday (well, okay, I
bought one stock on Thurs).

This rally is interesting and scary at the same time. Currently I am
taking a shotgun approach. My R value is still $100. I bought a bunch
of smaller stakes that I'm setting stops at %10 on. I've had a few that
I've been shaken out of the last few days.

Current holdings:
green-TIII, SIMC, SKIL, FSII, BMR, SEIC,
red-CTS, PBNY, FUR, FORR, FLAG

shouldn't I wait for a confirmed rally?

Well, for better or for worse, I got back into IFO today with
40 shares @27.5. I hope I'm not just buying because of regret of
selling too soon because I did what I should have done at the time.
Also, Jeff just got some and I hope it's not that I'm just jealous of
him. But it's up and I put a stop-loss order at breakeven, so I'll hope
I can let it ride. I am a little scared that the growth it's
experiencing looks crazy parabolic.

I also decided to buy some more AP after it had a slight pullback
yesterday. It has been very, very strong throughout this crappy market,
so that might be a sign that it's up and coming.

I also covered my last short FCX today for a $100 gain. Not much, like
2%, but after getting shaken straight out of TRAK yesterday, I'm not
feeling confident in shorting. So I'm out of shorts for the moment. I
lost $100 on 2 and gained $100 on one. But I think I learned some
lessons.

trying out shorts

Well, since this market has been more down than up lately, I've gotten
into a few shorts. BUCY I got bounced out of pretty quick on an up day
at a 5% loss. FCX and TRAK I still have. I can see why people don't
like to short: it's less reward. Also, it seems like this market is
choppy, so everything's cancelling out. I should probably get out of
both of them at a good spot, but then I'd probably be tempted to do
someting more risky.

My last long is AP, which has had some really strong days lately. It's
also #1 stock in the #3 group on IBD.

Another long I'm watching is NTSC. It's setting some new highs on
pretty big volume, although it's avg vol is pretty low.

so this is what a correction is like

Wow, haven't posted in a week and look whats happend. My portfolio
shrank from 10 stocks down to 2:

CTRN-my last half hit a 20% trailing stop and sold at 45.5 (breakeven)
Although now it's back to $50 after earnings.

USB-was lagging down towards my stop, so I sold it for breakeven.

TBBK-dropped way below 50dma. Has recovered some, but not above 50d.

KCS-failed to breakout. Sold at 4% stop. Has continued to plunge below
50dma.

IFO-sold remaining half Monday on HEAVY bounce. It has rallied back
some, but closed the day down hard today after being $2 up all morning.
This was a fun ride. I closed the 2nd half of my stake up 35%! At one
point it was up 50%, a first for me.

DIL-sold remaining half after 2 down days on heavy vol. It has
continued to trend down.

FNSR-closed below 50dma. Still down there.

DTLK-failed to breakout. Still down.

So, as you can see, this selloff has been pretty brutal, although I feel
I've handled it very well. My portfolio is down about $500 from it's
peak, but that really happened before I could get out of most things and
was a consequence of trying to give my winners room. I'm still up 8%
overall, which I think is pretty good for 2 months of trading. And this
correction was a good time to do housecleaning. I'm glad I did.
Everything I got out of was weak and is worse off, except CTRN, which
has rebounded.

However, I'm not totally out, yet. I still have half my AP stake, which
hit a new high today! And it did so on the highest volume since the
breakout. There may be better things yet to come for AP. Also, I'm
still in AOB, currently up 8%. It seemed to have overhead resistance
today and was up in the morning and closed slightly lower, although that
is par for the whole market today.

General consensus is that there's more selling ahead. Should be
interesting to see how the week closes on Friday.

IFO is out of the gate

Up another $1 at open today.  It's pretty much buoying my portfolio, the rest of which is down at open.  Stupid fed meeting this afternoon.

Sank the proceeds from yesterday into doubling my holding in AOB, which was up 6% for me, and buying a stake in DTLK, which was a maui recommendation yesterday.

two more new winners

Man, big movement today by two of my newer holdings: IFO and DIL.

IFO looked to be on the move last night.  It was up yesterday on good volume and then had huge after-hours movement.  Today it broke out on HUGE volume and was up 18%.  It very well could be on the way back up to the $20s again. 

DIL had a really strong day and rose 10% again.  Made a new high again on bigger volume than yesterday and is now up 30% for me.  The beautiful part is that I bought more last Friday when it was up 6% from my buypoint.

I locked in half of my stake in both of these today at 25% with limit sell orders.  I was very tempted to let both of them ride, but I decided that I would stick to my new rule for a while.  If it turns out later that it looks like it needs tweaking, I'll consider that later.

I also scaled out of half of my CTRN holdings on Friday at 56.89 (25%).  Plowed that money into buying more DIL and picking up 1 key of FNSR.

ERS had a climax run last week, followed by 3 days of HUGE volume down days.  It attempted a rebound today.  I am glad I did not try to stay in that stock.  Like they say, you will never time the top perfectly.

Current holdings up over 20%: CTRN, AP, IFO, DIL

ABAX out/AOB in

Oh yeah, and I got out of ABAX after that whole earnings rollercoaster.
It dropped way down before earnings, came back up the following day, and
dropped again the next. I scaled 25% of my shares at an 8% gain and the
rest at a 6% gain. Not much, but I didn't like the look of the high
volume selling days with a lower volume gaining day in between them.

CTRN gapped way up this morning. I put a limit order in to scale out
half my shares at 25%, but just missed it and it fell back a couple
points and is now up 3 for the day. I'm not sure if this is a good gap
or something to be worried about, yet.

I also picked up a small stake in AOB this morning. So unless something
sells out, I'm fully invested right now.

scaling out

So I've read a lot about scaling out of stocks lately. I already
started implementing it. One site I read recommended scaling out of 1/4
of your stock each time it reached a profit level. As an example, they
gave 6%, 18%, and 32%, and letting the last 1/4 ride. That might be
okay if you had large positions, but I think for my account, the
commissions would eat me up if I split it into that many trades.

Instead, I've decided to scale out 1/2 of my shares if I reach a 25%
profit point. As I get bigger positions, I might split it more, but I
figure for me being a newbie, and this being a sideways market, it's a
good way to lock in some profits, but not decrease my winners too much.

I already took profits in AP this way. Also, I got completely out of
ERS on a down day last week, for 25%. Of course, today it's up $5 and I
wish I was still in.

I've also decided to not do scaling in. I was watching maui picks and
buying some test lots of them, then buying more if they went up 3%.
Then I thought maybe I'd just wait and buy in if it went up 3%. I did
that with JOBS, but it turned out to be too far away from the buy point,
and I got shaken out today.

So I do have a couple of remaining test buys in DIL and TBBK. But I've
also done significant buys of KCS and USB.

get a JOBS

Bought some JOBS today, just a test buy. Maui had it back on the 17th,
and it's moved nicely. In fact, it had a breakout day yesterday after a
little handle formation.

And ABAX seems to have weathered the earnings storm and regained all its
lost ground so far this morning.

pleasant dilemma

So, for the first time I have a stock up over 20%--actually 2 of them:
ERS & AP. So here's the dilemma, what to do about it?

Everything I've been reading says that the biggest problem traders have
is selling winners too soon and holding losers too long. So I should
keep them.

But IBD says that if you're a beginner or in a dicey market, consider
selling when your stock gets up 20-25%. So maybe I should sell.

But IBD also says that if your stock goes up that 20% in less than 4-8
weeks, you should consider holding that stock for 8 full weeks because
you might have a really good stock. So I should hold.

I think what I will do is bump my stop up really tight on ERS so that it
will sell at 20% if it falls much. And AP I will let ride and might
even buy more of.

On another note, ABAX has me scared. It dropped 10% today, before
earnings even came out. I had a ~12% up in it, and now it's 0.10 above
my original purch price. Blast. But was that people just trying to
lock in profits, or someone selling that knows something? The #s came
out after close, and they seem phenomenal, and after hours trading was
up. But I'm not sure what the EPS estimates were, or if they beat them
by enough. I'm leaving my 8% stop in there. If it hits, I'm out a lot.
If it moves up, I might buy more.

DW out

DW got stopped out at 4% and it continued to fall another $1.50 from
there. It seems to have found support at the 50dma, though, so I will
watch it and see if it breaks out from there. It is still highly ranked
on the guru list.

Also out is JOYG. Man. This thing sank %10 today, from 70 down to 63.
My stop kicked in at $67, down 8% from my buy. I had 4% on DW, but
thought JOYG was strong, so I left it with 8%.

My new test buy is IFO. Got in it Wednesday. I think I will stick with
the 4% stop, as I'm not sure what kind of market this is.

active day

I added another test buy to my portfolio. DW, which is big on the guru
screeners.

I dropped MXO at open at 9.37. It continued to fall.

Also, my stop on NWRE hit. It dipped below the 50dma and I'm out of it
and $442. But I cut it at 15%, which was stupid, but could have been
worse.

After that housecleaning, I decided to plow that NWRE money into my good
stocks. I doubled my holdings in CTRN, which was up 12% for me. I'm
not sure if I should be pyramiding bigger or smaller as time goes on.
This was bigger, so I guess we'll see. I got some on a dip down to
$48.25

I also upped my test stake in ERS to a somewhat significant one. I
bought some more at $39.80, which it hovered around for a couple of
hours. It ended up closing up at 40.99 and is now up in after-hours.

I'm glad I did these things. I've got to learn not to be afraid of
getting out of a loser. Just because I dumped one or two possibly
prematurely early on, everybody says that this is something you must do
without fail. If I would have stuck to 8% on NWRE, it would been $150
less that I lost.

Also, I think on these test buys, I'm going to hold tighter stops, maybe
4-5%. I don't care to hold them if they don't go up right away.

testing the waters

Well, after watching both JOYG and ERS continue to climb higher and
higher each day, I finally decided to try and get in on them. I did it
in a very risky manner, though, buying after open.

JOYG shot up after open, and as I tried to put my buy order in, it was
already dropping. I bought it less than open, but more than close. ERS
I tried to buy using a stop-limit order, not buying unless it went
higher than a certain price, but then I decided to just buy with a limit
at 37. Well, it took ameritrade a while to cancel/replace my order, and
I'm sitting there waiting for it to execute, but the stock continues to
fall. Finally it goes down into the 35s before starting to come back up
and I bought at 36.37. It closed at 38.16. But I have a 4% stop on it
and an 8% on JOYG, which I consider to be less risky. I wonder if that
has any bearing on anything?

Anyway, the whole plan was to do a small "test buy" on each of them,
set close stops, and then buy more of whichever performs better. ERS
had a worse day, but I bought at a better price, so I may have skewed
that experiment. We'll see.

I'm thinking about dropping MXO at open. It's 5% down, and hadn't been
doing much, until two days ago when it shot to 10, and today when it
dropped back down to $9.37.

NWRE I'm not sure about. I have a stop set below the 50dma, but I
really don't want it to get down there. Again, this was bad timing on
the buy. Well, not really, I bought at $0.10 over the pivot, it just
happened to be the high for the day. Anyway, I'm down 11.5%, and
earnings come out next week. I'm tempted to hold it till then to see
what happens. But that kind of stuff is either very good or very bad.
Of course, I've already got my stop set and will lose only slightly
more, but the potential for upside is much greater.

Of course, this goes against everything I've ever read about selling a
stock that is down. Everything (except Cramer) says to liquidate a down
stock. There is nothing that hoping will do. And holding a loser and
having it come back is even more dangerous because it teaches bad
habits. I need to become more unemotional about these things and less
afraid of being down so much. Seeing that $434 that I would lose is
what's keeping me from doing this.

dropped FTK

I got out of FTK on Tuesday. I only held it a week, and it was
languishing. I wonder if I sold it prematurely? I've read that once
you buy a stock, you should let your system get you out of it: either it
hits your sell stop or you take profits in it. This one I was a little
impatient with, but I did sell it at a 5% loss, which I think is a good
conservative stop.

A part of the problem was how I bought it, too. I bought it intraday
on a spike during a down day, so I was in a hole to begin with. The
lesson there is place a market or limit order before open.

It has rebounded a bit in the last 2 days, but I really want to have
something break out sooner than that after I buy it. There were a lot
of stocks that went up this week that I could have been in if that $
wasn't tied up in FTK. And IBD says to drop your weak stocks and build
up your winners.

missed ERS

Put in a limit order for today for ERS at 33.75. It closed at 34.02 last night, but opened at 35.75 and never bought. Close was 37.65. This stock has just been crazy. I really should try and catch some.

chased FTK up

Saw FTK take off this morning from $27.90 all the way up to 29, which is
approaching a new high. I got a limit order in for $28.90, which filled
on the way back down. Another lesson for setting up your trades
before the market opens.

It's back down to its open price now, so hopefully won't go below that.

Dunno, looks like the market's turning down a little at the moment.

mauitrader rocks

I found a great blog recently http://mauitrader.blogspot.com I will be reading his blog and trying out some of his recommendations.

I have already picked up small lots of 2 stocks that he identified: AP and MXO They are both near a breakout. I will be cutting losses close on these, if need be.

Current holdings: ABAX+2%, CTRN+7%, NWRE-1%, AP-2%, MXO

CTRN up up and away!

Very interesting action by CTRN today. Last night they released some
good earnings numbers after closing at $39.94. The stock gapped up to
open at 43.09 and rose to 46.50 on the day!

Here's what was kinda cool. I bought this stock back on 3/29 at $39.19,
but I only bought 3 shares, or $100 worth. I had read an article about
staging in that recommended for a $500 stake buying $100 first as a
feeler. Then if it goes up 3%, buy $200 more. Repeat once more at 6%.
The idea is that if it tanks, you're only out $100. Anyway, I bought my
3 shares and then put in a buy-stop order at $40.37 (although for 22
shares, so I kinda broke rank with the system there by buying more than
$500 total and not splitting the 2nd piece of the buy).

Well, with this action this morning, my trade entered at open, but it
placed at 43.25 after the gap up past my buy point. The cool thing is
that those 3 shares I had already bring my avg purchase price down to
$42.76 because they were so much lower than the open price today. Cool!

As of right now, I'm up 8.7%. Now I just have to figure out when to
sell this puppy, hopefully after I ride it up a lot more. I'd like to
set a trailing stop, but I think they should probably be set for
15-20%, and I'm not up that much, yet. IBD says that you can expect a
17% pullback, but also that you should never take a loss after having a
profit, no matter how small. So for now I'm setting a stop at $43, to
try and give this thing the room to grow. With the huge volume it broke
out on today, hopefully it will head straight up.

I do think if it hits 20% I will sell. Everything I've been reading
says the biggest mistake people make is selling their winners too soon,
but I think 20% would be a good confidence booster and it's a simple
method IBD recommends for begginners.

Of course, IBD also says that if it climbs 20% in less than 8 wks to
hold another 8 wks, so we'll see. That would be a pleasant problem to
have.

missed JOYG

Man, I sold JOYG a day too soon. Today it's up $3.35 (5.59%)

I don't think I would have got out, either, if I didn't have a stop
order in. It closed higher on friday than it dipped throughout the day
and I was shaken out. So, that's another vote for only basing sell
decisions off of close prices.

Of course, there's always the chance that without a stop order, you
could get bit by a plummeting stock.

I'm going to leave NWRE without a stop for now. ABAX has a 20% trailing
stop. CTRN I have both a stop and a buy stop if it goes 3% over my
puchase price.

so NWRE, we meet again...

...for the first time, for the last time.

That's right, I'm back in NWRE. I decided I was either going to put in
a limit order at $27.54 or a buy stop at 30.60 (the new buy point). I
had them both set up in izone, but then thought what if they somehow
both bought while I wasn't looking? So I decided to wait till open.
Right out of the gate, it was immediately at 30.50, so I put in an order
for a limit at 30.60. It climbed to 30.66, then my order filled and it
dropped down to 30. We'll see how it does today. Initially, the market
looks good. I'm hoping for a lot of volume since it just touched a new
high. That will put it on the IBD front page and get it more exposure.

The theory is that we're trying to get a stock before it busts through
the buypoint and becomes an IBD rec. In the past, we've looked at what
IBD had highlighted and seen that we were either already above the buy
point + 5%, so the reasoning is that if you can get it at the buypoint,
you'll have greater profits and less risk of getting shaken out.

Also, I just noticed that JOYG is up $2 for the day, now that I'm out of
it. But ASVI is still languishing.

no more swing trading for my ira

I sold both ASVI and JOYG yesterday through stops.

JOYG I set a stop at $58.96 above my buy-in of $57.90. The thinking here is to never give away a profit. Of course, it ended up closing at 59.77.

ASVI once it broke back above my purchase price of $34.11, I set a 7% stop. It sold out at $31.92, then closed at 32.22.

This has me once again wondering about the wisdom of stop orders.

almost forgot

I also bought CTRN today with my izone acct. Once I get out of JOYG and
ASVI, I will stop using my IRA acct for trading and just buy mutual
funds or ETFs with it and do all my trading in izone.

Anyway, CTRN bounced off 36 last week, climbed to 42 and fell again
Tuesday. I bought it at $39.19 on a slightly up day. Plan is to buy
more if it climbs 3%, then again if it climbs a further 3%.

Current holdings:
JOYG
ASVI
ABAX
CTRN

Tempted by:
CMED
NWRE

still in it

Haven't posted in a while. I'm still in ASVI and JOYG. ASVI has come
all the way back up and finally today passed the 34.11 mark. JOYG
closed at 60, not too bad.

Also had VIMC for a while there. Bought it at $18.75, watched it go all
the way up to 20.99 (while I wasn't looking), stared at it a long time
while it was at 20, and watched it fall again. Put in a stop at 18.50
before open today and it sold.

Another new acquisition was ABAX a week ago. Bought it with a lowball
limit order at $23.50. It was up to 25 at one point, but is now at
23.68. This is one I might hold for a while. I heard about it at the
dfwcanslim meeting a month ago, and it has since shot to the top 10.
Also, I have a trailing stop on it, now that I have an izone acct and
can do that.

joyg back in black

Of course, as soon as I bought JOYG, it dipped. For a while. Seriously. I'm sure by the IBD standard, I should have dropped it, but I held on. Friday it finally recovered above the $57.90 I paid for it to close at $58.67. I don't think it ever fell below it's 50 day moving average.

Now if only ASVI would quit hovering around $30 and get back above $34.

lookin' good so far

JOYG is 2nd on IBD's Top 100 this weekend. It's also at a buy point, according to them. I thought I probably bought too high, so this is good news.

bought JOYG on a dip

After JOYG rocketed up $8 on Wed, I put in a buy order Thurs morning. I was going to do a market order, but woke up late and sat around watching it rise and fall for a while. While it was in the 58s, I set a limit order for $57.90. That executed an hour or so later. It closed at $58.12 on the day.

I'm not sure this is a good time to be buying, and was hesitant to buy this stock after it went up so much yesterday. "Surely it will go down after that," keeps popping into my head, but that's emotion and I have to block that out. One of the thing IBD says is a mistake people make is being afraid to buy at a new high.

So here goes.

wow

ASVI closed at 32.94 yesterday. Today it opened at 31 and dipped all the way down to 26.51 this morning before recovering to 32.18.

I never did put a 7-8% stop loss order in for it, so it didn't sell. At 8% I would have sold at 31.38 (or worse, probably, as fast as it rocketed down), so it seems like I lucked out. I think for now I'll not do stop orders, even at drastic points, like 10% or %15, both of which would have been triggered today.

I might regret this decision, but we'll see. So far I've gotten out of a lot of positions on intra-day dips. GFIG is now back at $60. I got out of it on a stop order at 51.58 when it had a huge dip one day. Same thing with PARL: it dipped the day I bought (and sold) it, not that it's any higher than what I bought it at. MRVL dipped and is still down below what I sold at.

Hrm, so maybe my record is not that bad. It just irks me that GFIG is so high and I had it. If I would have gone by close price, I'd still be in it. And PARL, but MRVL closed low, so I'd still be out of it, which is a good thing, the way it's been down.

So, that's the new strategy. Base my selling only off of close prices.

ASVI

Tues 2/21 I bought ASVI at 34.11. I was also considering CTRN again. I logged in, they were both on the rise. CTRN went up $4 that day. ASVI peaked when I bought it, and is currently at $32.91.

IBD says that we are in a confirmed rally, since the Dow broke out, but I'm not so sure.

Also, CTRN is about to make a new high, so it might be considered again.

sure, now the market's up

After I get out of every position, the market turns. Dow's at a 5 year high.

Jeff suggested checking out SCHK. I'm not sure it hasn't passed the buy point, but it looks like a good stock.

no more stop orders?

So I know IBD discourages stop orders, and now I think I see why. It seems like every day a stock will drop and rebound a good bit as a natural part of the cycle. This increases the likelihood of getting shaken out.

I think from now on I'll base my sell decisions on close prices. Although, that could bite me if a stock drops like a rock, so I might still put in an emergency (like 10-12%) stop order.

Got shook out of PARL

Well, 7% was enough to sell. I'm left holding only MRVL.

IBD says that this is 5 distribution days for the NASDAQ, so the lesson learned is that I probably shouldn't have bought at this time, anyway. Now their recommendation is to wait for better buying signs before acquiring new positions, which is what I think I'll do.

PARL stop-limit order

Okay, I decided that with the market as funky as it is this week, I
can't risk holding PARL if it decides to dip. I put in a stop-limit
order for 7%/8%.

Now I'm sure to be shaken out, but that's okay, it may be time to chill
for a while, anyway.

current holdings

MRVL
PARL

But for how much longer? We just bought PARL on 2/8/05 at $35.25. After the weak day it had today, we're not much above the buy point (32.78/7% or 32.43/8%).