girl, I been HURN

I would call that breaking out of a 3 wks tight pattern on high volume, wouldn't you? Yeah. I think I will buy some.

BGC has done really well for me this week. Also, MTOX is showing renewed vigor. AAPL might make another run at a new high before this whole iPhone thing is said and done. I sold half my shares last week and will watch to see if they do some kind of climax run next week as the hysteria builds.

The Nasdaq had a bearish engulfing day, followed by a piercing pattern (bullish) yesterday. I hope this doesn't mean summer choppiness is upon us.

oh, it's on!

So says IBD, "Confirmed Rally" is back. Well, this was the best day the Nasdaq has seen in a long time: a breakaway gap up on 27% greater than normal volume! Oh, and it's a new multi-year high. I guess all the bond fears are now gone? Or was that just a fakeout?

Today I bought VIP, which I bought back right before close today. Got stopped out of it last week after I held it for a long time as it dropped below the 50dma on greater than avg volume.

It bounced right back through the 50d, however, and today made a new high on big volume, finally breaking out of the range it was in for the month of May (or the last 3 months, you could argue.

For some reason, I haven't worried as much during this past correction. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that I put stops under ALL of my positions--a few trailing stops, but most based upon ATR or 7% less than the buypoint. I decided that I'm just not going to worry if they get stopped out too soon. "There is always another stock."

market candlesticks

Bullish engulfing signals on both the DOW and the S&P. And, is it me, or does the Nasdaq look like it did a kicker signal today?

the dow is crashing

The following article should be required reading by every US citizen, IMHO:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2007/0416.html

A lot of people laugh at the "goldbugs", but you have to take this at least somewhat seriously. At the very least, you have to admit that the dollar has lost 20% of its value in the last few years vs just about any other currency in the world. The price of 1oz of gold was $450 as recently as Sept 2005. Now it is $670. That is a loss of 33%. What if it becomes 50% less? 75%? 96%? Don't think it could happen? $1 only buys you $0.04 worth of what it could in 1913, but the rate is accelerating.

Enough with all the scary numbers, what can we do about it? What did the population of Germany do after WWI when they literally had to pay for loaves of bread with wheelbarrows of currency? They bought stuff with it! Because if they waited until tomorrow, they would be able to buy even less. And then they bartered and exchanged "things". You see, "stuff" retains value (except as it depreciates or gets replaced by a newer, faster computer). A gallon of gas and a gallon of milk will cost relatively the same, no matter how many units of currency they are being sold for.

Anyway, so what will hold value? How bout property? As a long-term investment, real estate has pretty much always gone up in value. Wonder why that is? Mostly because of inflation (yes, in some places it's speculation or lack of land). But it's hard to trade pieces of your house for other stuff.

Here's the moral of the story: exchange some of your currency for gold and/or silver.

now Europe scares us

The European Central Bank raised interest rates and prompted downmarkets overseas. The indices here followed suit. It was a pretty big downday, but everything seemed to find support. The S&P closed right on the 20day with lower volume. The Nasdaq also had lower volume. Only the dow increased volume, which follows this rotation out of it that we seem to be seeing.

Most of my stocks were in the red, but after reviewing them, I don't see anything breaking down. All except PTNR are still above the 20day, most above the 8day. AAPL went up slightly and on higher volume, which might be a concern if that trend continues. MVIS recovered nicely to end the day up 1c. I bought more of it at open with a limit order for yesterday's close, but I should have low-balled a little bit more.

USO I am still holding and it was one of my only gainers today. It managed to close on the 50dma today, and I'm afraid it might hit off it and retrace lower. Still, since it is a commodity, I have to wonder if there's other things that affect it, like storms in the Persian Gulf and potential hurricanes. If it starts another down day tomorrow, I will probably sell it.

blog posts trend with the market?

So I've noticed that I stopped blogging after 2/27 and didn't post much through March and April. I've only started to post again recently the last week or two. This is also when I started having some positive weeks again.

This worries me because it means I was probably being emotional about trading. I'd like to say it was because I was trading less during that time period, and that's partially true. But I think it's more because I didn't like to look at how my account balance was down.

I think I managed not to lose too much, though. I lost 10% on OFI, but it was only 1R. HWCC also gapped down and I lost 10%, but it was 2.5R. There were many others, but they were smaller. On the IRA side, I lost 1.5R on TM for 11% (that was two combined losing trades on it) and 1R 11% on WFR, which gapped down after earnings. A few others, but they were all much less than 1R. So I think I've made some progress in that department.


So here's what I have right now:

izone account:
MVIS +26%
NVTL +15%
PTNR +2%
TU +2%
GTI +1%

IRA:
ILF +14%
USO -7%
VIP +4%
AAPL +35%
MTOX +22%
BGC +3%
ARGN -1%
MICC -3%
MR -2%

iphone commercials

On Sunday the first iphone commercials aired. I wonder how that will affect the stock price this week?

Re: Is anyone else feeling uneasy?

> With this market the past couple of weeks reaching new highs almost
> every other day, and most of our picks here doing remarkably well, I'm
> scared.

Here's my take, just MHO. I see a lot of people on blogs and email
lists and at meetups that are nervous and in some or all cash. They
have been afraid to get in this rally after 2/27. QID volume and puts
are still rising. This wall of worry is still out there and the market
is climbing up it. When everyone finally throws in the short towel and
goes long and euphoria hits, then it will come down.

Early May we had the nasdaq and s&p lagging the dow and diverging. Not
good. Also, the market was opening up and the fading into losses at the
close of the day. That is changing. The dips keep getting bought.
Money is being put into play. We didn't see that in March as trading
volume was down across the indices. Seems like rotation is happening
into the nasdaq and small caps.

I kept watching the IBD picture last week to see if they'd turn the
rally into a correction. 5 Naz distro days: nothing, a 6th the very
next day: didn't even sweat it. They point out that top stocks are not
breaking down. On the contrary, more stocks are breaking out, the
nasdaq and the ibd100 are starting to lead the market. This week, the
dow is up 1.2%, s&p 1.4, Naz 2.2 and IBD100 3.9% That is remarkable.
This is exactly what IBD wants to see in a strong rally.

> With the China tax hike it looked like the time had come to bail out a
> bit, and I did, only to get right back in as it rebounded forcefully.
> My holdings have have increased smartly the past few weeks. But I'm
> not shouting for joy - not usually a pessimist, yet I can feel the
> drop coming.

In my hindsight 20/20 vision, I think 2/27 was just an excuse to take
some profits. Also the yen carry trade may have been part of that.
Last week Greenspan cried wolf again and the US market rocked a little,
but a breather was needed after recent strings of updays. Thursday the
market laughed off china losing 6.5%. Sure it opened down some, but it
turned around and went higher. Again last night shanghai was down 2.5%,
but we had another upday (on lower volume). Maybe now that everyone is
watching it and expects it to come tumbling down, China dropping won't
shock everyone so much (I know, that's a big "maybe"). And their govt
is trying to leak air out of the bubble instead of popping it.

> Any recommendations on appropriate items to bail out to? Some of my
> items are hitting 52 wk highs. Scary! The drop has got to come -
> this can't go on forever.

What's the saying, the market can be irrational longer than you can
remain solvent. What's wrong with 52wk highs? Are these stocks doing
climax runs, exhaustion gaps, or other topping signals?

Having said all that bullish stuff, I hear a little voice in my head
getting scared. I've been thinking about putting in some protective or
trailing stops, but am trying to fight closing stuff out prematurely.

triggers

Here's some stocks that I see firing my triggers today:

BGC confirming it's breakout from 2 days ago. May be a little extended
from buypoint, but volume has been increasing nicely the last 5 days.

YUM is breaking out of a 65-68 channel. Would like to see more volume,
but it is a low risk opportunity with a stop at 67 (or 65 if you're more
adventurous). This stock has been very good to me over the years as a
long-term hold. I got out of it after 2/27 and should have re-entered
sooner, and might use this as an opportunity. They announced a split a
week or two back.

JCOM should have bought this one yesterday, but it might still be within
5% of a 32.5 high. Volume might be diminishing.

TEX making a new high off a "mini-cup" pattern. Needs volume.

TSO making new high breaking out of 57-62 channel. I also like the idea
of having a refiner as a longer-term play.

GTI hasn't really based long enough for my liking, but making upmove
today off a 2 week tight pattern. Volume is looking good.

MR looks like it is breaking out of a 3mo cup & handle (short handle)
pattern. Volume running above avg, decreasing volume in the handle,
looking good. I am skeptical of buying a Chinese stock right
now--especially THIS one, which I bought last on 2/26. But it's very
tempting...

MICC (best for last) already above avg volume and up 5% breaking out of
a long 81-87 channel that has been building for 7 weeks. Some big downdays
in that time but good support at the 50d and now looks to be taking off.

I am long BGC from a few days ago. Of the others, I will look to enter
MICC and probably GTI today. MR I will ponder over some more.