Re: Is anyone else feeling uneasy?

> With this market the past couple of weeks reaching new highs almost
> every other day, and most of our picks here doing remarkably well, I'm
> scared.

Here's my take, just MHO. I see a lot of people on blogs and email
lists and at meetups that are nervous and in some or all cash. They
have been afraid to get in this rally after 2/27. QID volume and puts
are still rising. This wall of worry is still out there and the market
is climbing up it. When everyone finally throws in the short towel and
goes long and euphoria hits, then it will come down.

Early May we had the nasdaq and s&p lagging the dow and diverging. Not
good. Also, the market was opening up and the fading into losses at the
close of the day. That is changing. The dips keep getting bought.
Money is being put into play. We didn't see that in March as trading
volume was down across the indices. Seems like rotation is happening
into the nasdaq and small caps.

I kept watching the IBD picture last week to see if they'd turn the
rally into a correction. 5 Naz distro days: nothing, a 6th the very
next day: didn't even sweat it. They point out that top stocks are not
breaking down. On the contrary, more stocks are breaking out, the
nasdaq and the ibd100 are starting to lead the market. This week, the
dow is up 1.2%, s&p 1.4, Naz 2.2 and IBD100 3.9% That is remarkable.
This is exactly what IBD wants to see in a strong rally.

> With the China tax hike it looked like the time had come to bail out a
> bit, and I did, only to get right back in as it rebounded forcefully.
> My holdings have have increased smartly the past few weeks. But I'm
> not shouting for joy - not usually a pessimist, yet I can feel the
> drop coming.

In my hindsight 20/20 vision, I think 2/27 was just an excuse to take
some profits. Also the yen carry trade may have been part of that.
Last week Greenspan cried wolf again and the US market rocked a little,
but a breather was needed after recent strings of updays. Thursday the
market laughed off china losing 6.5%. Sure it opened down some, but it
turned around and went higher. Again last night shanghai was down 2.5%,
but we had another upday (on lower volume). Maybe now that everyone is
watching it and expects it to come tumbling down, China dropping won't
shock everyone so much (I know, that's a big "maybe"). And their govt
is trying to leak air out of the bubble instead of popping it.

> Any recommendations on appropriate items to bail out to? Some of my
> items are hitting 52 wk highs. Scary! The drop has got to come -
> this can't go on forever.

What's the saying, the market can be irrational longer than you can
remain solvent. What's wrong with 52wk highs? Are these stocks doing
climax runs, exhaustion gaps, or other topping signals?

Having said all that bullish stuff, I hear a little voice in my head
getting scared. I've been thinking about putting in some protective or
trailing stops, but am trying to fight closing stuff out prematurely.