Friday, July 27, 2007

anybody else buying here?

Until the next breakout sector emerges and I hopefully identify it, I'm
nibbling on QLD here, establishing a position. Bought some at 99 and
some more at 96. I will do one more buy if the market goes lower down
around 92. Then I'll use my avg share price to figure my stop based on
the amount I'm risking. For example, if my last buy is 92, that would
put my stop at 88, which is below the support levels from May and June.

This might be the wrong move, but I'm going on the theory that this is a
panic short-term move and not the beginning of a long term correction.
That is based on the VIX spiking to higher levels than 2/27 and after
today even higher than June 06 and also the % of stocks below their
50dmas being very low already. Also, QLD/QID are having record volumes
being sold/bought. But really, nothing has changed in the fundamentals.
The market knew that housing was going down the tubes--yesterday's
numbers couldn't have surprised any of the big players.

From this viewpoint, the selloff at the end today was good to see. The
recovery at the end of yesterday I think eased some minds and there
wasn't the air of panic after watching things come back a percent or two
in the last hour. The open up and then recovery mid afternoon today
also helped reassure longs. But then watching things slide right off
into the close maybe struck a little fear into a few hearts. Panic and
fear will shake the weak holders out and allow this uptrend to continue.
Might take a couple weeks, so I'm going to try to be patient.

Of course, this is all IMHO, and we could keep slipping til Labor Day.
Who knows.

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