crunching the numbers

Well, I just added up every position I closed in June & July in my accounts. At this point I'm pretty much stopped out of all but a few positions, so I've been updating my records and playing with spreadsheets.

$2702.19 gross
commissions 600
net $2,102.19

22 unique stocks traded, some with many entries, sells, reentries:

2 were breakeven

12 losers for -$3000
5 were "total losses" of 1% of the acct.

8 winners for $6400. Only 4 of those were significant
AAPL 1900
ILF 1400
MTOX 1250
BGC 950
which add up to 5500 of my 6400 profits.

It also means that in 2 months I'm up 3.3% net. I guess that's okay. If you were to extrapolate it out that would be around 20% annual. It's better than I used to do. In the past I've lost $1k on PG or TM in my IRA. Those two losses were as much as I just cleared in 2 months.

Or worse, $1k on BTJ in my $10k izone acct, or $500 on NWRE in there. Ugh.

So, what does it all mean? There's definitely something to the "you
make all your money on a few good stocks" theory. And the keep your
losses small one, as well.

June was pretty much flat for me, I think most of my gains came in July. If the kind of upward market we saw those first two weeks of July can keep going remains to be seen.

blog posts trend with the market?

So I've noticed that I stopped blogging after 2/27 and didn't post much through March and April. I've only started to post again recently the last week or two. This is also when I started having some positive weeks again.

This worries me because it means I was probably being emotional about trading. I'd like to say it was because I was trading less during that time period, and that's partially true. But I think it's more because I didn't like to look at how my account balance was down.

I think I managed not to lose too much, though. I lost 10% on OFI, but it was only 1R. HWCC also gapped down and I lost 10%, but it was 2.5R. There were many others, but they were smaller. On the IRA side, I lost 1.5R on TM for 11% (that was two combined losing trades on it) and 1R 11% on WFR, which gapped down after earnings. A few others, but they were all much less than 1R. So I think I've made some progress in that department.


So here's what I have right now:

izone account:
MVIS +26%
NVTL +15%
PTNR +2%
TU +2%
GTI +1%

IRA:
ILF +14%
USO -7%
VIP +4%
AAPL +35%
MTOX +22%
BGC +3%
ARGN -1%
MICC -3%
MR -2%

January 2007 Recap

At the close of this month I am down 25.5R, which is an improvement of 1.5R since the end of December.  And it's a 2.5R improvement from my low of the month, so I'm pleased.

Closed 3 positions:
TMO +1.2R on 20% gain.  That was the peak and it has drifted lower since.
GRRF -2.4R this was a big buy (more than 1R at risk) and it went against me.  I also let it go through my 7-8% loss limit on some of the shares.  But it is still lower, so it was right to close it out.
KPN -0.4R failed to breakout.

Opened 4 longs: CBG, KPN, PAY, and SYX

2006 in review

Well, my trading account, which I opened in March 2006 is down 27R. I traded
over 100 stocks in that time! Commissions were 8.7R and the remaining
18R were the following bonehead moves:

NWRE lost 5R by not adhering to a sell rule.
CTRN lost 2R by averaging down.
BTJ lost 11R by both averaging down and not adhering to sell rules.

Without those 3 trades, my acct would pretty much be even right now
(minus commissions). That's not great, but it wouldn't be bad.

The other mistake I made was trading too much and trading in a sideways
or down market. The problem there was trading for trading's sake. I
couldn't sit by and wait for conditions to improve. Instead, I kept
testing the waters and bleeding money.

Here's another common theme: the stocks I made good money on, like IFO,
FTEK, AP, AOB, I made money on quick. Generally within 2 weeks they'd
be up 20%. I might hold part of it longer, but I don't really have any
good winners that were just held for a long time and then sold.

Also, as of the start of the New Year, I'm on my own picking stocks
again. I spent a lot of time over at Investor's Paradise under Josh's
tutelage, but they have gone pay for play. I wish them luck and think
it's certainly worth the money, but I just can't spend that much on it
right now. I certainly learned a lot there and think I have grown as a
trader from being exposed to Josh and the rest of the folks I met there.

Here's a quote from Josh that is invaluable to a beginning trader:

14:03:38 [MauiTrader] it is so weird
14:03:42 [MauiTrader] how once you make rules
14:03:45 [MauiTrader] and stick to them
14:03:48 [MauiTrader] if you do lose money
14:03:54 [MauiTrader] you notice you lose a LOT less
14:04:11 [MauiTrader] and then when you get a couple of winners you
start to see drastic changes in the account number
14:04:30 [MauiTrader] i will never forget the moment I realized my
account was never going to take a huge hit again
14:04:34 [MauiTrader] it was a great feeling

I hope to know that feeling soon. Aloha to the end of one year and the beginning of another.

December recap

Well, December was up and down. After week 2 I was up 7R, but fell to
finish up only 1R. That's a little disappointing, but the market trend
was definitely down the 3rd week, which erased most of my gains.

Closed
TCHC breakeven.
MIKR 1/4 at +1.8R
MIKR 1/4 at -0.4R
AOB cashed 1/4 out at 40% gain +1.6R
UCTT -0.6R
NSTC -2R

Opened the following positions:
GRRF, AB, CHINA

November recap

At the close of last week, I was down 28.5R, dead even from where I was
in my last recap after Nov Wk1, but up slightly since the beginning of
November, which is kind of a bummer with this strong market we've had.
I was up over 4R at one point, but the last week of the month brought me
back down. All my stocks have been acting well and I have reduced my
trading frequency.

Closed or sold part of 8 stocks in Nov:
CTRN gain 1.2R
MCRS lost 1.2R
WSTG lost 0.5R
MIKR gain 1.9R sold 1/2 pos at 20% gain
HMSY lost 0.8R stopped out at -9%
AOB gain 1.6R sold 1/2 pos at 20% gain
ULTI lost 0.5R failed ot break out, sold at -4%
UCTT broke even, sold 1/2 pos 1st day after failed to break out

I only opened 5 positions in November, compared to 13 in October, and I
am still holding 3 positions from October. Overall, I think things are
good. I am trading less, letting stocks run longer, and 4 of my 6
stocks are in positive territory. Everything I bought was at a proper
buypoint and done at open, and I have not sold anything unless it failed
to breakout or reached a profit target.

monthly updates

Since the 1st of November, I've been meaning to do a recap. As of the
end of October, I am down 28.5R. This is not good, especially since I
have doubled my losses since the end of August. But my acct is not at
an all time low, which was down 31R last week.

Sep 2006
Closed 6 positions in Sep.
WEBX, made 0.5R on 10% gain.
FUEL, got my world rocked with a 33% loss for -2R
BTJ spanked me for -11.5R
IMKTA made 0.5R
BTU -0.5R
SIM had a wash

Down 13R on the month. Ouch!

So, that was entirely stupid. FUEL I let go so long because it seemed
to move in a broad range, but it just kept going down and I had such a
small position that I figured what the heck. BTJ I watched slip away.
I didn't chase it down, but I was up for one day and then it had a huge
downday. I kept thinking it would come back as it got lower and lower.
The whole time I was worried and it literally kept me up at night
thinking about my losses and what I should do. Then the oil sector went
in the crapper and I got really scared.

These two stocks alone count for most of my losses since August. My
other 4 stocks made a little. NEVER VIOLATE YOUR STOPS!

Oct 2006
Closed 11 positions in Oct.
WEBX, closed the remaining half of my position at breakeven.
TRAD -0.3R -7%
FTEK +1.0R +20%
VOCS -0.5R -10%
NUVO -0.2R -4%
OPSW -0.2R -4%
CY -0.8R -17% big down day
SYKE -0.2R -3%
MVSN -0.2R -3%
TCHC -0.2R -2% sold half a larger pos on initial down day
WSTG -0.2R -4% sold half a larger pos on initial down day

Down 1.8R on the month. Not great, but not bad considering how many
trades I had. As I said in my other post, I opened too many positions
the 1st and 2nd week of October. Many of them got stopped out after
10/22, which must have been a market down day. I think that of all the
ones I closed, only VOCS has gone on to recover into positive territory
from where I sold it, so this looks like it was a good move to dump all
them.

FTEK I may have closed prematurely, but that's hindsight. It happened
to have a big upday on earnings, but before that had been sinking since
the day I sold it. So, until I get better confirmation of a strong bull
market, I'm shooting for 20% profit. At that point I will either take
half or all off the table, depending on the size of the position.

So far for Nov I have closed 3 positions:
CTRN +1.25R 14%
MCRS -1.23R -6% on a big downday
WSTG -0.50R -10% stopped out of the rest of my pos

So those are down 0.5R, but my currently open positions are up 3.77R, so
this first week is looking good.

2006.09.01 update

Just a note for myself here. My acct balance as of right now is -15R.
Is that bad? Is it good? I dunno, but I can't change it by worrying,
so it just is. I cannot sit obsessing about the money, instead I should
concentrate on making good trades and the results will follow.

I might try and recap my trades from Aug, if I can define which ones
those are (ones starting in Aug, closing in Aug, open, closed, etc)

I had a losing trade on CTRN of 2R. That was big and dumb. Did not buy
at a proper buypoint. I tried to average down, but also got shaken out
before it recovered.

IGT I had a small loss of 0.15R from a proper buypoint.

SWN was a momentum play that turned bad. Lost 1R in 2 days. It was
not at a proper buypoint but a speculative Nat Gas play that didn't
work.

TRMB lost 0.5R off a proper buypoint and watched it go up 5% before
that. Should have maybe upped my stop to breakeven in this tough
market.

SIM lost 0.36R on a speculative play on a volatile stock. Bought right
below the resistance level of a new high and it bounced back down.

GE short lost 0.8R
PZZA short lost 0.5R
LEV short improper buypoint. Lost 0.9R

So I closed out 8 losing trades and no winners with a loss of 6.21R. At
the moment I wave 5 open longs: BTJ, BTU, FUEL, WEBX, IMKTA