a test of will

After MIKR's big down day today, I considered selling my remaining half.
I'm still up 1%, but IBD says to not let your winners turn into losers.
On the other hand, it also says that if a stock climbs 20% in less than
8wks, you should hold it for the full 8 weeks. That would have been a
smart rule to follow with SIM and FTEK.

Also, some folks on IP have convinced me that it is a choppy stock in
general, this is par for the course, that it's still way above the
50dma, and that I'm being scared. All these are probably true.

So I'm going to hold it and be patient and do some sitting. Even though
I'm very tempted to cash out of that and get into LQDT today. That's
one of my problems that I've identified: I like buying new stocks. I
need to decide why I'm doing this. Is it for the thrill of getting
something new, or is it to make money? If it's the latter, I need to
learn some discipline.

bye ULTI

Sold ULTI this morning for a 4% loss. It never really broke down, but
it never broke out, either. It just drifted down toward the 50dma. I
may have sold too soon, as it hasn't closed below it yet and is in fact
bouncing off it this morning, but it wasn't looking like a winner and
was the worst performing of my stocks.

If it does recover and go on to break out, it will be a lesson to not
get out of a stock until your rules force you out.

Besides, I wanted to buy NSTC and I already have too many stocks, so I
had to cut one. I currently hold 6 stocks, which is too many, my goal
is to have no more than 4 at one time. Although 2 of my stocks are 1/2
stakes in winners that I have already cashed out some profits on and am
letting them ride.

I did break one of my rules by buying during the day, but I had planned
to buy NSTC and forgotten to put an order in. Besides that, I got it at
16, when it gapped up to open at 16.24. And 16 is still within 5% of
the 15.25 buypoint.

cutting half my UCTT

... since it did not take off today. It was up early, but closed down
3% for me.

AOB's aight, too

So AOB released really good earnings and the stock was up 10% at open
today. Then it hit my 20% sell at $9.59 on its way to topping at 10.05
for the day. Sweet.

MIKR has had a pullback of 7% since I sold half of it. But volume is
drying up and it seems to be finding support with lots of
upward-pointing arrow days.

picking up some UCTT

Wow, big day on the market today. Indices setting record highs and on
big volume. My izone portfolio was only up a few bucks, but it
recovered from being down quite a bit mid-day.

Tomorrow I'm going to use my remaining cash to buy some UCTT. I've
thought about closing out ULTI as it's been lackluster, but might give
it a few more days.

MIKR doing aight

This morning my order to sell half my MIKR position at 20% up triggered.
Sweet. Now I have to decide what my out is for the other half. It was
an interesting day for MIKR. It went all the way to 19.24 for a new
52wk high, back down past my sell at 18.84 and closed down at 18.13.

Maybe I should have sold my entire stake at 20%, like I did with FTEk,
but now FTEK is up another 12% above what I sold at, so I think I'll
hang on to some. Besides, MIKR hasn't shown a sell signal yet, although
today was a down arrow on slightly larger than avg volume, so I'll be
keeping an eye on it.

out HMSY, in ULTI

Dumping HMSY at open and buying some ULTI. The chart looks pretty good
and it's in group #11.

monthly updates

Since the 1st of November, I've been meaning to do a recap. As of the
end of October, I am down 28.5R. This is not good, especially since I
have doubled my losses since the end of August. But my acct is not at
an all time low, which was down 31R last week.

Sep 2006
Closed 6 positions in Sep.
WEBX, made 0.5R on 10% gain.
FUEL, got my world rocked with a 33% loss for -2R
BTJ spanked me for -11.5R
IMKTA made 0.5R
BTU -0.5R
SIM had a wash

Down 13R on the month. Ouch!

So, that was entirely stupid. FUEL I let go so long because it seemed
to move in a broad range, but it just kept going down and I had such a
small position that I figured what the heck. BTJ I watched slip away.
I didn't chase it down, but I was up for one day and then it had a huge
downday. I kept thinking it would come back as it got lower and lower.
The whole time I was worried and it literally kept me up at night
thinking about my losses and what I should do. Then the oil sector went
in the crapper and I got really scared.

These two stocks alone count for most of my losses since August. My
other 4 stocks made a little. NEVER VIOLATE YOUR STOPS!

Oct 2006
Closed 11 positions in Oct.
WEBX, closed the remaining half of my position at breakeven.
TRAD -0.3R -7%
FTEK +1.0R +20%
VOCS -0.5R -10%
NUVO -0.2R -4%
OPSW -0.2R -4%
CY -0.8R -17% big down day
SYKE -0.2R -3%
MVSN -0.2R -3%
TCHC -0.2R -2% sold half a larger pos on initial down day
WSTG -0.2R -4% sold half a larger pos on initial down day

Down 1.8R on the month. Not great, but not bad considering how many
trades I had. As I said in my other post, I opened too many positions
the 1st and 2nd week of October. Many of them got stopped out after
10/22, which must have been a market down day. I think that of all the
ones I closed, only VOCS has gone on to recover into positive territory
from where I sold it, so this looks like it was a good move to dump all
them.

FTEK I may have closed prematurely, but that's hindsight. It happened
to have a big upday on earnings, but before that had been sinking since
the day I sold it. So, until I get better confirmation of a strong bull
market, I'm shooting for 20% profit. At that point I will either take
half or all off the table, depending on the size of the position.

So far for Nov I have closed 3 positions:
CTRN +1.25R 14%
MCRS -1.23R -6% on a big downday
WSTG -0.50R -10% stopped out of the rest of my pos

So those are down 0.5R, but my currently open positions are up 3.77R, so
this first week is looking good.

out of CTRN again

Well, I had a sell order in for $40 on CTRN, which was 15% gain for me.
Of course, it shot right through that on the way to $45 today, but oh
well. I set that limit during the last sideways trend and twice in the
past week it peaked at 39.94, so I was thinking it was going to fall
back without even hitting 40.

I've done so much that's so wrong with this stock that I don't think I'm
going to trade it anymore. Especially not when the 50 is below the
200dma.

No more buying stocks unless they're from a proper breakout!

ease up

Well, the market started heating up and I started jumping in with way
too many positions. After a while it became apparent that most of them
were lagging, too. Now I'm taking fewer, bigger positions and basing my
trading on this quote by mauitrader:

And remember when a stock breaks out it should immediately start making
you money. Therefore, if you buy a stock and it is not up immediately
the next day, sell half. Then see if the other half can come back.
Nothing says you have to wait till the stock hits that level. The best
stocks keep going up after breaking out. Newbies shouldn't wait. They
should bail quickly if the stock does not work.

Current holdings: FTEK, FSH, CTRN, WEBX, TCHC.

perfect

I got out of BTJ at almost the exact low: $14.15

Well, actually, I kept 60 shares, but I sold the majority.

Always cut losses at 8%!!!!

CTRN out of the box

I know it's wrong that the 50day is below the 200, but I'm back in CTRN
at 35.00. Money is flowing from commodoties into other sectors, and I
think falling gas prices make retail one of those sectors. We'll see.

cramer on commodities

"But what you need to know, though, is that there is no bottom to a
commodities stock when the commodity peaks," he continued. "They will go
down and overcorrect to the point that none of you listening will be
able to take the pain of the decline."

Hrm, that does not bode well. Still, BTJ is holding the 50dma so far.

BTJ line in the sand

Well, this is it. BTJ is right up against the 50dma at 14.79. Low of
the day so far is 14.76. A close below this and I'm gonna have to get
out and admit to a 20% loss on this badboy.

another rule broken

After BTJ closed above 20, I was up 10%, but didn't put a stop in for
breakeven. I also didn't sell part of my holdings, which I thought
about, but greed said, "Hey, why sell now? It might go higher."

out of btu

I sold it Thurs at open as it didn't look like it was holding support.
It went on to lose almost another $1.

Lesson: don't buy if it's not at a proper buypoint

back with SIM

After yesterday's breakout, I have new faith in SIM. I bought some
today at 14, which is what it closed at yesterday. Another buck or two
and this will make the IBD 100 as well. I just have to weather the
pullback.

The bad thing about this is that I've now used most of my (diminished)
cash resources, leaving me helpless to buy other breakout stocks, unless
I dump something. Of course, the way BTU is performing, that won't be
long.

BTJ breakout

After making #3 on the IBD 100, BTJ came roaring out of the gates today
to make a new all time high and break through the resistance at $19.48.
After it did so, I put a limit order in to buy more at $19.55 while it was bouncing
off of $20. I came home to find that it was now at $20.49 and my order
had filled! Sweet.

It closed at $20.35.

out of IMKTA

After the selloff on Friday, I decided to exit this, so I sold at open.
Of course, it's up $0.89 on the day, but I don't feel bad. I did what I
should have done. It's not if it went up or down, but that I made the
right trade at the right time.

2006.09.01 update

Just a note for myself here. My acct balance as of right now is -15R.
Is that bad? Is it good? I dunno, but I can't change it by worrying,
so it just is. I cannot sit obsessing about the money, instead I should
concentrate on making good trades and the results will follow.

I might try and recap my trades from Aug, if I can define which ones
those are (ones starting in Aug, closing in Aug, open, closed, etc)

I had a losing trade on CTRN of 2R. That was big and dumb. Did not buy
at a proper buypoint. I tried to average down, but also got shaken out
before it recovered.

IGT I had a small loss of 0.15R from a proper buypoint.

SWN was a momentum play that turned bad. Lost 1R in 2 days. It was
not at a proper buypoint but a speculative Nat Gas play that didn't
work.

TRMB lost 0.5R off a proper buypoint and watched it go up 5% before
that. Should have maybe upped my stop to breakeven in this tough
market.

SIM lost 0.36R on a speculative play on a volatile stock. Bought right
below the resistance level of a new high and it bounced back down.

GE short lost 0.8R
PZZA short lost 0.5R
LEV short improper buypoint. Lost 0.9R

So I closed out 8 losing trades and no winners with a loss of 6.21R. At
the moment I wave 5 open longs: BTJ, BTU, FUEL, WEBX, IMKTA