Yesterday was a big down day for my portfolio. Pretty much all my gains from last week were erased. But the most troubling thing was what to do about each of my stocks that were down? Specifically AOB, ICE, and CBG. I had a few different ideas go through my head, but the conflicting ones were "never let a winner (10% up) turn into a loser" and "don't trade scared." I was incapacitated for a while, but finally decided to sit down and look at them one by one.
AOB had two big downdays in a row and was down significantly off the high of 14.19. I'm still up 40% on my remaining shares, though, and they say you have to give your winners room. So I decided that if it fell more than 30% from the high, I'll sell it. (As of today, it's continuing to approach that, down another 6%)
CHINA I have been up 10% on, so my exit point would be break even again: 9.59
CBG had 2 big downdays almost to the 50dma, but I was still up 2%. I had been up 10% so my exit would be b/e again or 34.84. This is also very close to the 50dma, so if it violates that, I'll sell. (today it's gapped up 1% and stayed there.)
ICE was the main one I was worried about because I have a large stake in it and I bought it on margin, which is a whole nother story. It rocketed up 10% in less than 2 days, but then proceeded to give it all back Fri and Monday, which you will notice is the common theme here. I was still up 1% on it, but it has had wide moves and I was afraid of it dropping right though my entry price. But when I bought it I decided that I would give it 3% down to 138. That would violate the first tenet mentioned above, but I decided my reasons for buying the stock were still valid so I'd hold it down to my original exit point. (so far today it's up 4%.)
HRT was also in the same boat, although it seemed to find some support in the 31 area on Monday. I had originally budgeted for an 8% pullback, so I'm sticking with that: right around the 29 area. (Today it has dipped to 29.14, but recovered somewhat)
In other words, I've decided to be patient and see what happens. Try not to over-trade or get scared off. Let each of my stocks tell me when to sell. That's the whole point of establishing exit criteria before you get into a stock, so you'll have something to fall back on in times like these. I can't panic at seeing red on the screen or my account falling from its highs. The number is not important, it's making the right trades. And trying to guess which way this market's going is foolish.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
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